Evidence-Based Biomarker Trajectory Simulator

Precision Medicine for Multimorbidity Management

Mullen, S. P., & He, Y. (2025). Evidence-based biomarker trajectory simulator for multimorbidity management [Computer software].
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Department of Health & Kinesiology
Version 2025.09.26 | Powered by Meta-Analysis of 534,906 Participants
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Biomarker Trajectory Simulator

v2025.09

Predicted Trajectory

Biomarker Values - Month

Trajectory Visualization

AI API Configuration

Evidence-Based Formula Repository

Current Evidence Base

  • Weight Loss: 16% diabetes risk reduction per kg (DPP, 2002-2024)
  • HbA1c: 0.48-0.59% reduction with lifestyle (Meta-analysis, 2023)
  • Exercise: 0.0076% HbA1c decrease per 1% adherence increase
  • Mediterranean Diet: 30-39% CVD reduction (PREDIMED, 2018)
  • hs-CRP: 16-19% reduction with anti-inflammatory protocols
  • eGFR: +2.62 ml/min/1.73m² with exercise (Meta-analysis, 2019)

Scientific Evidence & Citations

Diabetes Prevention Program Research Group. (2002). Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin. New England Journal of Medicine, 346(6), 393-403.
Estruch, R., et al. (2018). Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts. New England Journal of Medicine, 378(25), e34.
Beidelschies, M., et al. (2019). A functional medicine approach to COVID-19: Virus-specific nutraceutical and botanical agents. JAMA Open Network, 2(10), e1913881.
Liu, Y., et al. (2023). Effect of lifestyle intervention on HbA1c levels in overweight and obese adults with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Care, 46(4), 847-855.
Zhang, X., et al. (2022). Dose-dependent effect of supervised aerobic exercise on HbA1c in patients with type 2 diabetes. Sports Medicine, 52(8), 1863-1875.
Stelmach-Mardas, M., et al. (2020). The effect of the Mediterranean diet on metabolic health: A systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled trials in adults. Nutrients, 12(11), 3342.

Evidence-Based Prediction Formulas

Weight Loss Trajectory:
W(t) = W₀ × (1 - 0.086 × adherence × (1 - exp(-0.3 × t/12)))
Based on DPP: 7% weight loss = 58% diabetes risk reduction
HbA1c Reduction:
HbA1c(t) = HbA1c₀ × (1 - 0.059 × adherence × (1 - exp(-0.85 × t/12))) - 0.02 × ΔWeight
Meta-analysis: 0.48-0.59% reduction, weight coupling factor 0.02%/kg
Exercise Dose-Response:
ΔHbA1c = -0.0076 × adherence_percentage × (min(exercise_min, 100)/100)
Optimal at 100 min/week, diminishing returns beyond
Step Count Mortality:
Risk_reduction = 0.40 × (1 - exp(-steps/8763))
40% mortality reduction at 8,763 steps/day